Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T07:02:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9d8…4e4a politics 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%6W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% −$4
other 15% −$1
sports 7% $0
crypto 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 22% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 19% 0% -9.7%
all 31 -0.2% -9.7% 19% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses6 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage86d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $56 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $233 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $115 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $114 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $177 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $57 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $119 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $117 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $240 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $176 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $118 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $118 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 23 $59 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $59 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $123 −$2 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $123 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $62 $0 -1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $123 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $62 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $62 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $56 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $56 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $56 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $56 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $56 5d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 5d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $56 9d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $56 9d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $56 9d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $56 9d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $56 10d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 10d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 11d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $57 11d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $57 16d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $57 16d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $57 18d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 18d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 20d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $57 21d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $57 22d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $57 22d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 32d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $57 32d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $57 34d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $57 34d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $57 36d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 36d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 36d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $58 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.27 · official $56.27 (match) · 193 history records