Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:53:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9d6…910d sports 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,022 (-3%) realized −$6,275 · open +$3,253
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate61%43W / 28L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,401per market
Trades / day44.7pace
Fees−$736est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$6,224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,580
7 days−$434
14 days−$4,779
30 days−$4,779
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$4,718
other 3% +$3,193
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +3.2% -6.6% 71% 33% -10.1%
≤30d 71 +17.9% +6.6% 61% 32% -14.7%
≤90d 71 +17.9% +6.6% 61% 32% -14.7%
all 71 +17.9% +6.6% 61% 32% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.6% 32% -14.7%
10% -3.6% 30% -22.9%
15% ← realistic here -12.9% 24% -30.3%
20% -21.4% 20% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$1,839) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +44% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$283 vs −$606 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$6,224
Realized−$6,275
Unrealized+$3,253
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses43 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$736
Open positions3
Markets (closed)71 / 75
History coverage12d
Avg bet$1,401
Trades / day44.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain leading at halftime? No 33¢ 69¢ $2,824 $6,016 +$3,193 (+113%)
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Francesca Jones 41¢ 50¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Yes 37¢ 66¢ $47 $84 +$37 (+80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $500 +$1,014 +203%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $2,218 +$20 +1%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $2,701 +$24 +1%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $3,206 +$206 +6%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $3,000 +$28 +1%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $4,010 +$387 +10%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $0 $0 -98%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $170 −$165 -97%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $1,131 +$11 +1%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $127 +$1 +1%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $39 +$54 +138%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $1,437 −$1,426 -99%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $7,218 −$386 -5%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $6,000 +$54 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $142 +$84 +59%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $5,458 −$5,453 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $1,211 −$1,211 -100%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $79 +$25 +32%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $0 $0 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Bouzkova vs Vekic Jun 12 $78 −$59 -75%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $123 +$2 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $6,601 +$64 +1%
Shimabukuro vs. Kyrgios: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 11 $57 $0 +0%
Shimabukuro vs. Kyrgios: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Kyrgios (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 11 $93 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $3,008 +$19 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $30 −$19 -62%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $16 +$12 +73%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $2,513 −$500 -20%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $2,000 +$18 +1%
Montgomery vs. Minnen: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $123 +$1 +1%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $1,000 +$368 +37%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $1,034 +$209 +20%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $1,405 +$192 +14%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $5,085 +$131 +3%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $1,000 +$449 +45%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $1,039 −$29 -3%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $2,261 −$1 -0%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $264 +$541 +204%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $2,000 +$18 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $1,504 −$503 -33%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Jan Choinski Jun 10 $4,706 +$1,395 +30%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $628 +$406 +65%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $1,017 +$282 +28%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $58 −$21 -37%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $500 +$929 +186%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $4,635 +$2,052 +44%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $627 +$342 +55%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $4,092 +$1,055 +26%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $1,002 −$1,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Nikola Bartunkova 100¢ $1,514 35m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $48 36m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 39¢ $452 37m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 37¢ $1 39m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 37¢ $7 39m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 37¢ $58 39m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 37¢ $38 39m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 34¢ $163 42m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 34¢ $337 42m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 33¢ $510 43m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 30¢ $11 45m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 30¢ $450 45m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 30¢ $24 45m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 30¢ $16 45m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 30¢ $216 45m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 30¢ $4 45m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 30¢ $21 45m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 30¢ $35 45m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 30¢ $500 46m
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro SELL Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 100¢ $2,724 1h
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 99¢ $2,701 1h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 41¢ $102 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 100¢ $2,215 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 99¢ $2 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 99¢ $99 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 99¢ $10 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 99¢ $198 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 99¢ $468 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 99¢ $441 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 99¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,224.09 · official $6,224.96 (match) · 588 history records