Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:31:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9d4…15f5 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$1
other 30% $0
politics 10% +$1
crypto 7% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 1% −$3
weather 1% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -0.5% -9.9% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 6 -0.5% -9.9% 17% 0% -9.9%
all 22 -0.3% -9.8% 64% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 5% -10.0%
10% -18.4% 5% -18.6%
15% -26.3% 5% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 5% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage469d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $34 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $31 −$1 -3%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30? May 28 $11 $0 +3%
Will Oliver Bearman finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes be Eastern Conference champions? May 27 $2 +$1 +82%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 25 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $8 $0 +2%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 17 $9 $0 +0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 03 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 27 $13 $0 -1%
Will Tennessee win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $13 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 20 $13 $0 +1%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 13 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $33 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $33 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $22 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $8 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 70¢ $30 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $34 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $34 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $23 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $23 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $10 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $24 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $34 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $15 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $15 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 29d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $1 333d
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? SELL No 98¢ $11 363d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $2 376d
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? BUY No 98¢ $11 390d
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30? SELL No 99¢ $11 390d
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30? BUY No 96¢ $11 391d
Will Oliver Bearman finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? SELL No 100¢ $8 391d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes be Eastern Conference champions? SELL Yes $1 391d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes be Eastern Conference champions? SELL Yes $1 391d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes be Eastern Conference champions? SELL Yes $0 391d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes be Eastern Conference champions? SELL Yes $0 392d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes be Eastern Conference champions? SELL Yes $0 392d
Will Oliver Bearman finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? BUY No 99¢ $8 393d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes be Eastern Conference champions? BUY Yes $0 393d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes be Eastern Conference champions? BUY Yes $1 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records