Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:25:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

F9 0xf9d3…be02 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$80 (-4%) realized −$80 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate81%17W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$91per market

Trades / day8.8pace

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)-9.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+0.6%	-9.0%	81%	52%	-17.4%
≤30d	21	+0.6%	-9.0%	81%	52%	-17.4%
≤90d	21	+0.6%	-9.0%	81%	52%	-17.4%
all	21	+0.6%	-9.0%	81%	52%	-17.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.0%	52%	-17.4%
10%	-17.7%	29%	-25.3%
15%	-25.7%	14%	-32.5%
20%	-33.0%	14%	-39.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

35% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +10% → late -8% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$104 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.59 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$36

Realized−$80

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)81%

Wins / losses17 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage4d

Avg bet$91

Trades / day8.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$36	$36	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET	Jun 23	$104	−$86	-82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET	Jun 23	$101	+$13	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Jun 19	$6	−$6	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Jun 19	$4	+$3	+68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Jun 19	$148	−$148	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Jun 19	$98	+$53	+54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Jun 19	$86	+$12	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Jun 19	$64	+$21	+34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Jun 19	$34	+$31	+90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Jun 19	$25	+$6	+25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Jun 19	$177	−$177	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Jun 19	$171	+$8	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Jun 19	$150	+$20	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Jun 19	$135	+$15	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Jun 19	$130	+$5	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Jun 19	$119	+$11	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Jun 19	$106	+$13	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 19	$81	+$23	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Jun 19	$78	+$5	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Jun 19	$70	+$1	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Jun 19	$72	+$4	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$37	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET	SELL Down	8¢	$18	43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$114	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Down	77¢	$6	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$4	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$148	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$1	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$97	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$5	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$81	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	BUY Down	87¢	$3	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$61	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$34	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	BUY Down	87¢	$5	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	BUY Down	87¢	$172	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	BUY Up	94¢	$5	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$166	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$9	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$141	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$4	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Up	89¢	$131	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$30	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$100	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$8	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$111	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$5	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$101	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$5	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.13 · official $36.13 (match) · 62 history records