Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F9
0xf9cf…58a8
crypto · 297 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$53 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$53 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses163 / 129
Open positions5
Markets (closed)292 / 297
History coverage18d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day32.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 5 History 292 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$58
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$55
other 2% +$1
world 2% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 39m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 32¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 -4.3% -13.4% 70% 58% -8.6%
≤30d 292 -14.4% -22.6% 56% 46% -16.8%
≤90d 292 -14.4% -22.6% 56% 46% -16.8%
all 292 -14.4% -22.6% 56% 46% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.6% 46% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 34% -24.7%
15% -36.7% 20% -32.0%
20% -42.9% 14% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.84 · official $10.84 (match) · 720 history records