Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:32:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9ce…f660 sports 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$93 (-15%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%33W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days−$151
14 days−$146
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$139
other 7% −$19
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -63.8% -67.3% 21% 16% -65.7%
≤30d 26 -51.1% -55.7% 23% 19% -58.2%
≤90d 51 -27.9% -34.7% 35% 29% -40.6%
all 80 -17.6% -25.4% 41% 31% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 31% -32.3%
10% -32.6% 25% -38.8%
15% -39.1% 21% -44.7%
20% -45.1% 18% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses33 / 47
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage164d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $63 −$62 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $21 −$18 -87%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -42%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +13%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $15 −$12 -80%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 23 $24 +$17 +70%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 22 $20 −$1 -5%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $8 +$1 +12%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $6 $0 +8%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 +$5 +91%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $11 $0 -3%
ITF Monastir: Francesca Dell'edera vs Yelyzaveta Chainykova Jun 18 $7 +$4 +52%
ITF Cuiaba: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Nick Hardt Jun 07 $1 $0 -44%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $1 $0 -23%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 28 $2 −$2 -87%
Counter-Strike: FarmVille vs insane players (BO3) - ESL Challenger Lea Apr 27 $13 $0 -3%
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs RED Canids (BO3) - ESL Challenger Le Apr 26 $10 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $7 +$7 +112%
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs ODDIK Academy (BO3) - CCT South Americ Apr 26 $3 −$1 -20%
Stars vs. Wild Apr 26 $5 +$3 +60%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 25 $13 −$5 -35%
Sabres vs. Bruins Apr 24 $10 −$2 -17%
Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 24 $3 $0 +7%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers Apr 23 $11 +$14 +129%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 23 $23 −$23 -100%
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 19 $5 +$1 +22%
LoL: Kaufland Hangry Knights vs Eintracht Spandau (BO1) - Prime League Apr 19 $0 $0 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals Apr 15 $7 −$1 -10%
Rangers vs. Panthers Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets Apr 13 $19 +$16 +82%
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals Apr 05 $11 −$5 -49%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 04 $6 +$1 +18%
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 04 $3 +$2 +83%
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants Apr 04 $5 +$1 +13%
Stanford Cardinal vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Apr 03 $3 +$7 +194%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $63 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals $3 27h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 70¢ $21 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 19¢ $14 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No $1 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 10¢ $1 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 10¢ $0 33h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 26¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 26¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 26¢ $1 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 38¢ $2 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 37¢ $1 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 37¢ $1 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 38¢ $5 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 38¢ $6 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 39¢ $9 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 39¢ $1 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 39¢ $6 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 39¢ $2 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 39¢ $1 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 39¢ $2 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova BUY Lucie Havlickova 51¢ $5 2d
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic SELL Duje Ajdukovic 100¢ $32 2d
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Duje Ajdukovic 50¢ $2 2d
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Duje Ajdukovic 50¢ $2 2d
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Duje Ajdukovic 52¢ $13 2d
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic SELL Duje Ajdukovic 64¢ $9 2d
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Duje Ajdukovic 53¢ $5 2d
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Duje Ajdukovic 53¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 259 history records