Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:04:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F9
0xf9ce…2fc9
crypto · 111 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$31 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$45 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses40 / 70
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage48d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 110 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Up 30¢ 29¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 30? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 1? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on May 1? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$3 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +157%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$7 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$4 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 10 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 20 $1 +$3 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 75% −$22
weather 17% −$25
sports 8% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $6 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $11 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -32.0% -38.5% 45% 34% -24.2%
≤30d 61 -6.5% -15.4% 41% 36% -19.8%
≤90d 110 -20.9% -28.5% 36% 31% -28.1%
all 110 -20.9% -28.5% 36% 31% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 31% -28.1%
10% -35.3% 29% -35.0%
15% -41.5% 24% -41.3%
20% -47.3% 19% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.76 · official $8.76 (match) · 272 history records