Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F9 0xf9cc…59ab sports 629 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (123 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$188 (+2%) realized +$208 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate59%350W / 245L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day122.6pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$656now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$77
14 days+$40
30 days+$386
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 60% +$6
sports 29% +$169
other 11% +$193
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (123 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -1.0% -10.5% 81% 47% -12.5%
≤30d 595 +8.2% -2.1% 59% 41% -5.3%
≤90d 595 +8.2% -2.1% 59% 41% -5.3%
all 595 +8.2% -2.1% 59% 41% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover122.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.1% 41% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -11.5% 34% -14.4%
15% -20.0% 25% -22.7%
20% -27.9% 18% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$656
Realized+$208
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses350 / 245
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions34
Markets (closed)595 / 629
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day122.6
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 595 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? No 65¢ 86¢ $40 $53 +$13 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? No 83¢ 96¢ $40 $47 +$7 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 73¢ 100¢ $30 $42 +$11 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? No 90¢ 93¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? No 66¢ 68¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? No 81¢ 100¢ $32 $40 +$7 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? No 89¢ 88¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? No 71¢ 69¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? No 65¢ 78¢ $24 $29 +$5 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? No 79¢ 88¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? No 89¢ 94¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? No 67¢ 68¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? No 66¢ 52¢ $24 $19 −$5 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 84¢ 100¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? No 74¢ 78¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? No 92¢ 94¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 17? No 94¢ 96¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? No 71¢ 62¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? No 59¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? No 81¢ 92¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? No 76¢ 84¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? No 85¢ 94¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? No 93¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? No 64¢ 68¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? No 75¢ 78¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $14 +$5 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $16 +$5 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $16 +$7 +46%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 15 $16 +$7 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 15 $16 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$5 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 +$9 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 +$16 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $32 +$7 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 +$7 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 +$8 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$12 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $32 +$29 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $24 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $12 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$5 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 69¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 64¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $4 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $656.31 · official $656.68 (match) · 3500 history records