Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:06:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9cc…11e7 politics 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 626d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 73L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$17
other 2% −$1
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 74 -0.4% -9.9% 1% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

626d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage626d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 17 $51 $0 -1%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $51 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $52 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $52 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Feb 28 $53 $0 -1%
Will David Ganezer receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Feb 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ceara win the 2025 Brasileiro Serie A league? Nov 24 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the Bundesliga? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Hoffenheim win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Brooke Rollins confirmed as Agriculture Secretary? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dinamo Zagreb win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trey Hendrickson win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Manchester United wins the Premier League? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will 'A Bar Song (Tipsy)' win Song of the Year? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
UK civil war in 2024? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Derrick Henry be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Supreme Court term limits in 2024? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Will Justin Herbert win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Claxton lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Will Jerome Powell say "price" 10 or more times during December FOMC P Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Riley Leonard win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Quinn Ewers win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $0 $0 -1%
Lily Phillips has sex with between 500-749 men in a day? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during December FOMC P Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will USC win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in November? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Hunter Biden sentenced to 1-3 years in gun case? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $51 13h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 15d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 16d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $51 22d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $51 23d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 31d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 32d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $51 34d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $51 35d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $51 39d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $51 39d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 40d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 41d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 45d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 46d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 61d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 61d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 65d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 65d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $52 71d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $52 71d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 88d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 89d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 91d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 92d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $52 95d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $52 95d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 96d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records