Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:45:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F9 0xf9c8…5379 sports 91 markets active 2d ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$24 (+14%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate62%56W / 35L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$19
other 3% +$3
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -20.5% -28.1% 33% 33% -23.3%
≤30d 82 +10.3% -0.2% 60% 57% -0.8%
≤90d 91 +12.9% +2.2% 62% 57% +1.8%
all 91 +12.9% +2.2% 62% 57% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 57% +1.8%
10% -7.6% 57% -7.9%
15% -16.5% 52% -16.8%
20% -24.7% 38% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses56 / 35
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage35d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -93%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $2 $0 -19%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $1 +$2 +148%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 +$1 +37%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 −$1 -44%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 $0 +29%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 $0 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1 +$1 +44%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $1 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 +$1 +46%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $2 $0 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $1 +$1 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 26 $1 $0 +4%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Bondar May 25 $1 +$1 +70%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $8 +$3 +46%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 25 $4 −$3 -85%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Damir Dzumhur May 24 $1 +$1 +73%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $1 +$1 +42%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 24 $2 $0 +29%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 24 $2 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 24 $2 −$2 -75%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $2 +$1 +83%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 24 $3 −$2 -75%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 24 $3 +$2 +88%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 24 $2 +$2 +63%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 24 $3 +$1 +59%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $3 +$2 +60%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 23 $2 +$1 +65%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $1 +$1 +48%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 23 $1 +$1 +93%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 23 $1 +$1 +119%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 23 $1 +$2 +134%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 May 23 $1 +$2 +114%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 23 $3 +$2 +72%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $2 −$1 -45%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 23 $1 $0 -7%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $2 +$1 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1 42h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 96¢ $2 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 64¢ $1 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 49¢ $2 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs $0 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 72¢ $1 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 35¢ $1 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa SELL South Africa 20¢ $1 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa SELL South Africa 20¢ $1 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 26¢ $3 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 10¢ $1 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY South Africa 24¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 31¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 51¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 72¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 55¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 73¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 77¢ $1 8d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 73¢ $1 8d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 69¢ $1 8d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 61¢ $1 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Spirit 74¢ $1 10d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 68¢ $2 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 67¢ $1 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Marta Kostyuk 54¢ $1 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 80¢ $2 14d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 12¢ $1 16d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees SELL Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ $1 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Bondar BUY Elina Svitolina 58¢ $1 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records