Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:47:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9c7…0aa7 world 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 287d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%32W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$12
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$1
other 20% −$14
politics 5% +$1
sports 4% +$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% −$3
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.8% -12.1% 17% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 28 -1.4% -10.8% 32% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 38 -1.1% -10.6% 32% 0% -9.7%
all 109 -0.5% -10.0% 29% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

287d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses32 / 77
Open positions4
Markets (closed)109 / 113
History coverage287d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 73¢ 70¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $96 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $109 −$1 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $101 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $395 −$7 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $123 −$1 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 -13%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $219 +$2 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $112 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $126 +$2 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $98 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $113 −$3 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $15 −$4 -29%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $61 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $107 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $346 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $53 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $218 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $113 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $5 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $124 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $87 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $113 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $113 +$1 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $101 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $112 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $39 +$4 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $332 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $172 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $149 +$1 +1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $244 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $107 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $9 $0 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $106 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Mar 23 $5 $0 +10%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $21 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Jan 31 $19 −$6 -32%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $7 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Pelicans Nov 24 $5 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $110 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $79 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $11 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $83 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $13 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $21 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $73 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $95 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $4 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $98 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 74¢ $101 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $112 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $112 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $112 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $112 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $10 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $9 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $3 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $72 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $19 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $12 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $104 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.37 · official $110.92 (match) · 455 history records