Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:27:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9c6…cfe3 sports 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%8W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 24% $0
other 22% −$3
politics 20% −$1
economics 13% −$3
culture 7% −$1
crypto 7% −$1
world 5% −$1
tech 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.1% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 3 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
all 151 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses8 / 143
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage168d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $42 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 01 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 21 $162 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 21 $202 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 21 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $70 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $105 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $145 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 21 $104 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 21 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 21 $90 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 21 $119 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $109 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $254 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 20 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $112 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $57 $0 +0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 17 $170 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 17 $208 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 17 $161 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 17 $290 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $86 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 17 $118 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 15 $173 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 15 $109 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 15 $167 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $55 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $47 1h
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $41 7d
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $42 7d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 20d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 20d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $48 35d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $48 37d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $53 120d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $53 120d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 120d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $56 120d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $49 120d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $49 120d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 92¢ $55 120d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 92¢ $55 120d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $55 120d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $55 120d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 95¢ $56 120d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 95¢ $56 120d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $48 120d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $48 120d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $49 120d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $49 120d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 96¢ $56 120d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 97¢ $56 120d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $50 120d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $50 120d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 91¢ $51 120d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 91¢ $51 120d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $50 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.51 · official $46.51 (match) · 489 history records