Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:09:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9c6…e509 politics 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 309d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate30%17W / 40L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$1
other 29% +$1
politics 17% +$1
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.7%
all 57 +0.4% -9.2% 30% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 4% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

309d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses17 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage309d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $37 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $71 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $72 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $28 −$1 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 27 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 27 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $6 +$1 +15%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 18 $2 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12? Sep 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 10 $5 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 08 $4 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $2 $0 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 28 $5 $0 -6%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will Kanye tweet "$YZY" by Thursday? Aug 23 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 21 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $37 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $30 8h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $7 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $18 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $5 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $34 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $34 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $28 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $9 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $37 24h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $17 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $25 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $4 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $30 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $27 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $28 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $18 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $20 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $38 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $35 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 22d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $8 178d
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $7 178d
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $7 248d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.67 · official $37.95 (match) · 163 history records