Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:33:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F9 0xf9c5…910a other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL −$59 (-12%) realized −$56 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip

Net edge+28%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%2W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$61per market

Trades / day8.7pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+39.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+54.0%	+39.3%	33%	33%	-13.2%
≤30d	6	+54.0%	+39.3%	33%	33%	-13.2%
≤90d	6	+54.0%	+39.3%	33%	33%	-13.2%
all	6	+54.0%	+39.3%	33%	33%	-13.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+39.3%	33%	-13.2%
10%	+26.0%	33%	-21.5%
15%	+13.8%	33%	-29.1%
20%	+2.7%	33%	-36.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -4% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +54% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$92 vs −$50 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.91 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$61

Realized−$56

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses2 / 4

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions2

Markets (closed)6 / 8

History coverage2d

Avg bet$61

Trades / day8.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$40	$38	−$2 (-5%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	22¢	22¢	$24	$23	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$13	+$52	+388%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 21	$31	−$30	-97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$29	−$23	-80%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Jun 21	$185	−$146	-79%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 20	$100	−$2	-2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$67	+$132	+197%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$24	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	10¢	$41	1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$65	1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$13	5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY No	0¢	$31	5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	1¢	$6	6h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	2¢	$39	6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	4¢	$16	39h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$82	39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	88¢	$99	40h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	4¢	$13	40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$100	40h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$103	40h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$200	41h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	33¢	$67	42h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.28 · official $61.28 (match) · 15 history records