trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | -45.0% | -50.2% | 11% | 0% | -40.6% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -36.1% | -42.2% | 27% | 0% | -33.9% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -39.8% | -45.5% | 33% | 0% | -36.4% |
| all | 15 | -39.8% | -45.5% | 33% | 0% | -36.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -45.5% | 0% | -36.4% |
| 10% | -50.7% | 0% | -42.5% |
| 15% | -55.5% | 0% | -48.0% |
| 20% | -59.8% | 0% | -53.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Yes | 67¢ | 66¢ | $16 | $16 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? | Yes | 83¢ | 82¢ | $8 | $8 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 77¢ | 76¢ | $7 | $7 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will France win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 89¢ | 88¢ | $6 | $6 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Yes | 71¢ | 69¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 76¢ | 76¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 70¢ | 69¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 57¢ | 56¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 90¢ | 88¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | Yes | 59¢ | 57¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? | Yes | 19¢ | 18¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-8%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 16 | $1 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 16 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? | Jun 16 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | Jun 15 | $5 | $0 | -5% |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | Jun 15 | $5 | $0 | +8% |
| Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on May 22? | May 22 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | May 12 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | Apr 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | Apr 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |