Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F9 0xf9c1…5249 politics 162 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,100 (+1%) realized +$4,100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate23%38W / 124L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$1,761per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days+$13
30 days+$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$377
politics 38% −$140
sports 14% +$3,817
world 3% −$7
economics 3% −$5
culture 2% −$6
tech 1% −$3
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 55 +8.6% -1.8% 15% 11% -9.4%
≤90d 114 -2.6% -11.9% 10% 6% -9.1%
all 162 +8.7% -1.6% 23% 14% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 14% -8.3%
10% -11.0% 14% -17.0%
15% -19.6% 13% -25.1%
20% -27.5% 11% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$2,352) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$7 · ×17.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.49 per $1 lost it wins $5.49
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses38 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)162 / 162
History coverage145d
Avg bet$1,761
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 162 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $462 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $1,792 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $256 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $3,051 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $530 +$3 +1%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $6,481 −$7 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $2,395 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,040 −$3 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $185 +$1 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,079 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $979 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $6,534 −$7 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,602 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $1,658 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $8,534 −$9 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,532 −$4 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $4,990 −$7 -0%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $67 +$68 +101%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,041 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $4,482 −$6 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $803 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $6,306 −$6 -0%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $45 +$68 +152%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $59 +$62 +105%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $3,182 −$4 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $994 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,826 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,352 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $4,728 −$6 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $5,790 −$7 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $3,392 −$5 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $1,802 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,770 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $1,173 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $2,369 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,038 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $3,566 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $3,890 −$5 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $52 +$26 +50%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,217 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $342 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $343 3h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $462 5h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $462 7h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $341 24h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $341 26h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $340 26h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $340 27h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $256 32h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $256 33h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $253 47h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $253 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $282 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $282 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $245 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $245 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,041 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,043 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,037 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,038 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,155 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,157 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,074 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,076 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $977 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $979 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,034 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,035 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $856 10d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $858 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 599 history records