Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:35:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9c1…0a41 world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% $0
other 19% −$2
politics 7% −$4
crypto 3% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 17 -0.8% -10.3% 35% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 17 -0.8% -10.3% 35% 0% -9.5%
all 45 -2.6% -11.8% 38% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -10.0%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage480d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $82 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $42 −$2 -5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $67 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $23 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $111 +$6 +5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $89 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -12%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $81 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $23 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $41 −$2 -4%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $10 $0 -4%
Will 'The Apothecary Diaries' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will 'Seiko' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 202 May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $7 +$1 +10%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Sweden qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 14 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 09 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 08 $9 $0 -4%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 07 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 May 06 $11 $0 +2%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Doc Rivers make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 22 $11 $0 +0%
Trump negative approval before March? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Micky Arison make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 01 $11 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $40 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $24 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $0 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $24 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $3 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $3 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $21 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $19 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $42 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $30 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $4 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $5 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $5 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $4 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $0 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $12 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.14 · official $39.14 (match) · 141 history records