Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F9 0xf9bb…166e crypto 461 markets active 5h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,011 (-2%) realized −$1,031 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate52%235W / 216L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$71
14 days−$110
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,844
sports 1% −$8
other 1% −$67
politics 1% +$28
tech 0% −$2
weather 0% −$15
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -11.5% -19.9% 44% 40% -23.3%
≤30d 64 -14.2% -22.3% 47% 41% -20.7%
≤90d 64 -14.2% -22.3% 47% 41% -20.7%
all 451 -15.9% -24.0% 52% 37% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 37% -13.1%
10% -31.2% 20% -21.4%
15% -37.9% 12% -29.0%
20% -44.0% 7% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -17% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$28 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized−$1,031
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses235 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions10
Markets (closed)451 / 461
History coverage147d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 451 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $59 $92 +$33 (+56%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $66 $67 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Yes 88¢ 74¢ $33 $28 −$5 (-16%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Yes 47¢ 26¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 −$4 -25%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $9 +$10 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 10 $17 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $15 −$3 -17%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $10 $0 -5%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $10 −$4 -36%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $42 +$8 +20%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 10 $15 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $48 −$10 -20%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $25 −$9 -38%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $29 +$4 +13%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 10 $20 +$5 +23%
ITF Nyiregyhaza: William Grant vs Jeremy Schifris Jun 10 $5 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 10 $19 +$5 +24%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $16 +$3 +21%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M Jun 10 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +29%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 09 $38 −$2 -6%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -95%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 09 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$5 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $7 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 −$5 -46%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $13 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 88¢ $33 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 42h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $12 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $10 3d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $37 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL No 93¢ $37 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $9 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 91¢ $18 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? SELL No 78¢ $15 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 90¢ $18 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 88¢ $0 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? BUY No 82¢ $17 6d
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P SELL NEW VISION 51¢ $0 6d
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P SELL NEW VISION 51¢ $13 6d
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P BUY NEW VISION 49¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P BUY NEW VISION 67¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group SELL KOLESIE 68¢ $10 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL FUT Esports 45¢ $6 6d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL INOX Division 100¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.07 · official $258.07 (match) · 3056 history records