Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:20:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9b7…a37c crypto 93 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3316 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$28,831 (+111%) realized +$28,800 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate65%59W / 32L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day3316.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$955
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3316 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 +8.1% -2.2% 65% 46% -6.3%
≤30d 91 +8.1% -2.2% 65% 46% -6.3%
≤90d 91 +8.1% -2.2% 65% 46% -6.3%
all 91 +8.1% -2.2% 65% 46% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3316.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.2% 46% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -11.6% 21% -15.2%
15% -20.1% 9% -23.4%
20% -28.0% 1% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
35.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$57 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized+$28,800
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses59 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$278
Trades / day3316.0
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 85¢ 100¢ $197 $232 +$35 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 55¢ 50¢ $33 $30 −$3 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $360 −$21 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $421 +$84 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $402 +$69 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $780 +$65 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $182 +$18 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $612 −$170 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $274 +$42 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $490 +$20 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $469 −$179 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $547 −$237 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $316 −$9 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $352 +$55 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $345 +$58 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $383 +$76 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $592 −$56 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $355 +$42 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $239 +$37 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $419 −$77 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $221 +$98 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $405 +$59 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $280 +$39 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $316 +$24 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $260 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $411 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $184 −$10 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $183 +$24 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $442 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $264 −$37 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $164 +$78 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $321 +$52 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $212 −$6 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $320 +$36 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $122 −$32 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $219 +$44 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $390 +$18 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $263 −$47 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $279 −$36 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $259 −$48 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $257 +$56 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $181 +$16 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $258 −$66 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $221 +$24 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $145 +$35 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $196 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $524 −$95 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $228 −$10 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $199 +$84 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $215 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $245 +$52 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $254 −$35 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $27 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $27 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $16 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $19 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $8 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $21 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $16 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $28 6m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.60 · official $289.27 (match) · 3500 history records