Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:07:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F9
0xf9b7…c1ed
sports · 59 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$13 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$18 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$64
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses42 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)48 / 59
History coverage22d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 11 History 48 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$20
14 days+$23
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 66¢ 40¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 46¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
ITF Ljubljana: Jan Kupcic vs Alexander Weis Alexander Weis 98¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Team Falcons win CS Asia Championships 2026? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? No 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 MIBR 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 +$3 +11%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J Jun 09 $5 +$1 +11%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 +$4 +79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +4%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 $0 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $5 $0 +3%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Taro Daniel Jun 05 $5 $0 +3%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Mark Lajal Jun 05 $5 +$1 +11%
ITF Ljubljana: Jan Kupcic vs Alexander Weis Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $5 +$2 +31%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $5 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 04 $5 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $5 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +17%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $5 +$2 +38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $5 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $10 $0 +3%
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $5 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $24 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 26? May 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 25? May 25 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 24 $5 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $5 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St May 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Team Falcons win CS Asia Championships 2026? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $51 −$3 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 44% +$10
world 26% +$4
other 17% −$1
weather 7% −$2
politics 6% +$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $5 30h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $5 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 38h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 90¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 90¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 90¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 90¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 87¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 96¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? BUY No 90¢ $5 3d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $5 5d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J BUY No 90¢ $5 5d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 55¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 96¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FUT Esports 91¢ $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +17.4% +6.3% 94% 53% +4.1%
≤30d 48 +4.7% -5.2% 88% 40% -5.2%
≤90d 48 +4.7% -5.2% 88% 40% -5.2%
all 48 +4.7% -5.2% 88% 40% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 40% -5.2%
10% -14.3% 23% -14.3%
15% -22.6% 15% -22.5%
20% -30.2% 4% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.74 · official $63.75 (match) · 114 history records