Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:39:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F9
0xf9b5…68b2
weather · 48 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$123 -42%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$102 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23
Realized−$102
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)39 / 48
History coverage34d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 9 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days−$105
14 days−$105
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? No 70¢ 73¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 78¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 62¢ 59¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 55¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 57¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 12? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 12? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $2 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$16 +769%
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 12 $1 $0 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 12 $1 +$9 +834%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 1 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 16? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 15? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 16? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on May 16? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$15 +697%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $10 +$12 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 10 $4 +$6 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 07 $4 +$2 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +63%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $2 +$3 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% −$134
other 1% +$8
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 24¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $5 7h
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 57¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 55¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June SELL Yes 100¢ $22 23h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 26¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 38h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY No 60¢ $5 38h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 38h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 60¢ $5 38h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 40¢ $5 38h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $5 38h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $2 38h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +23.2% +11.5% 34% 32% -47.7%
≤30d 38 +23.2% +11.5% 34% 32% -47.7%
≤90d 39 +26.5% +14.5% 36% 33% -46.3%
all 39 +26.5% +14.5% 36% 33% -46.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.5% 33% -46.3%
10% +3.5% 33% -51.4%
15% -6.5% 31% -56.1%
20% -15.6% 31% -60.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.10 · official $23.10 (match) · 101 history records