Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:21:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9b3…4a99 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$79 (-20%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%7W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +75.7% +58.9% 32% 32% -3.8%
≤30d 22 +75.7% +58.9% 32% 32% -3.8%
≤90d 25 +54.6% +39.9% 28% 28% -23.2%
all 25 +54.6% +39.9% 28% 28% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.9% 28% -23.2%
10% +26.5% 24% -30.5%
15% +14.3% 24% -37.2%
20% +3.1% 24% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +144% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$13 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses7 / 18
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage57d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$12 +236%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$15 +292%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $46 +$51 +110%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $8 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $51 +$84 +165%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$7 +345%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $28 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $16 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 +$5 +16%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$6 +27%
LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner SELL Young Ninjas 49¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner SELL Young Ninjas 49¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner BUY Young Ninjas 14¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY Young Ninjas 12¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 16¢ $5 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 19¢ $5 15h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 22¢ $5 15h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 34¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $5 17h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z $5 17h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY ex-RUBY 26¢ $5 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $5 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team $5 17h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY ex-RUBY 25¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 19¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 20¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 24¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $20 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $20 21h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 34¢ $10 21h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 41¢ $10 21h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 41¢ $10 21h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 34¢ $10 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 53¢ $10 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 19¢ $1 35h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 26¢ $1 36h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 34¢ $1 39h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 20¢ $1 39h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 37¢ $51 41h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 31¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records