Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F9 0xf9b2…e6d6 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% $0
politics 31% −$1
world 6% $0
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage101d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $108 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $108 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $108 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 22 $108 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $108 $0 +0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $109 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $110 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $110 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $110 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $110 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $110 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 10 $110 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $108 2h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $108 15h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $108 4d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $108 5d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $108 11d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $108 12d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $108 21d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $108 22d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $108 27d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $108 28d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $108 33d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $108 37d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $109 37d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $109 41d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $109 42d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $110 61d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 62d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $52 62d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $110 73d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 74d
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $110 80d
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 81d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $110 91d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 91d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $110 94d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $110 95d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $110 96d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $110 96d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $110 98d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $94 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records