Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:31:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9b2…809c sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,031 (-31%) realized −$1,025 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$394now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$1,042
other 3% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -20.0% -27.7% 47% 47% -42.6%
≤30d 19 -20.0% -27.7% 47% 47% -42.6%
≤90d 19 -20.0% -27.7% 47% 47% -42.6%
all 19 -20.0% -27.7% 47% 47% -42.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 47% -42.6%
10% -34.6% 42% -48.1%
15% -40.9% 42% -53.1%
20% -46.7% 26% -57.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$154 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$394
Realized−$1,025
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions8
Markets (closed)19 / 33
History coverage3d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 55¢ 54¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-3%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 60¢ 60¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 46¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 67¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Over 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 54¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $48 +$39 +83%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $39 +$44 +114%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $121 −$121 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $122 −$122 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $223 −$223 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $223 −$223 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $406 −$406 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $71 +$31 +44%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$69 +135%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $46 +$31 +67%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $106 +$69 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $404 +$176 +44%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $402 +$74 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY 35¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: C BUY 32¢ $15 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: C BUY 45¢ $41 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY 26¢ $15 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY 37¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: C BUY 44¢ $41 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $71 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $51 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $66 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $56 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $81 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 42¢ $51 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 30h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $30 30h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $39 30h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $48 30h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $46 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 30h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $46 30h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $106 30h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY 30¢ $102 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $223 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $123 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $122 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $41 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $223 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $121 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $393.60 · official $534.00 · 53 history records