Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9b1…38b5 other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (101 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day101.0pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% $0
politics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -6.8% -15.7% 0% 0% -15.7%
≤30d 1 -6.8% -15.7% 0% 0% -15.7%
≤90d 1 -6.8% -15.7% 0% 0% -15.7%
all 1 -6.8% -15.7% 0% 0% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 0% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 0% -23.8%
15% -31.1% 0% -31.1%
20% -37.9% 0% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day101.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? No 87¢ 86¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 65¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 88¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? No 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 7m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? SELL No 85¢ $1 8m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL No 86¢ $1 8m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 89¢ $1 23m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 86¢ $1 23m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL No 87¢ $1 33m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 89¢ $1 39m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? SELL No 81¢ $1 40m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 88¢ $1 41m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 41m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? SELL No 81¢ $1 42m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 67¢ $1 42m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 88¢ $1 42m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL No 89¢ $1 43m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 90¢ $1 43m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL No 89¢ $1 44m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 90¢ $1 45m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? SELL No 81¢ $1 45m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL No 89¢ $1 45m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 88¢ $1 46m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 90¢ $2 46m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? SELL No 85¢ $1 48m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? SELL No 85¢ $1 49m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 87¢ $1 53m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? SELL No 85¢ $1 53m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL No 89¢ $1 54m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 90¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 87¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? SELL No 85¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.64 · official $16.53 · 101 history records