Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:11:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9b0…a817 world 142 markets active 0h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,834 (+13%) realized +$4,758 · open +$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate76%100W / 31L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$545now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$138
7 days+$167
14 days+$185
30 days+$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$4,672
finance 6% +$51
politics 6% +$54
other 5% −$60
crypto 1% +$29
sports 1% +$44
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +27.3% +15.2% 59% 41% -4.8%
≤30d 27 +37.7% +24.6% 59% 44% -7.0%
≤90d 90 +42.1% +28.6% 76% 33% +4.2%
all 131 +28.7% +16.4% 76% 27% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.4% 27% +2.0%
10% +5.3% 21% -7.8%
15% -4.9% 16% -16.7%
20% -14.2% 14% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +55% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$12 · ×4.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.09 per $1 lost it wins $15.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$545
Realized+$4,758
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses100 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)131 / 142
History coverage168d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $188 $189 +$1 (+1%)
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+1%)
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? Yes 32¢ 44¢ $40 $56 +$15 (+38%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? No 90¢ 100¢ $44 $48 +$5 (+11%)
Will 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? No 55¢ 86¢ $29 $46 +$17 (+57%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? No 52¢ 62¢ $28 $34 +$6 (+20%)
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? No 66¢ 74¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+11%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $1 $22 +$21 (+3306%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? No 94¢ 100¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+6%)
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+15%)
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 56¢ 79¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 4? Jun 27 $1 +$3 +190%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? Jun 26 $215 +$13 +6%
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30? Jun 26 $1 $0 +0%
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? Jun 26 $15 +$4 +26%
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28? Jun 26 $32 +$8 +24%
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? Jun 26 $28 +$10 +37%
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29? Jun 26 $16 +$3 +22%
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? Jun 26 $0 +$1 +300%
Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31? Jun 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Jun 25 $550 +$135 +24%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 25 $682 −$40 -6%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $139 +$11 +8%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Jun 24 $25 −$10 -39%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- Jun 24 $1,360 +$64 +5%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $22 −$12 -54%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 21 $73 −$22 -30%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -48%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J Jun 20 $281 +$37 +13%
Will Trump publicly praise Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $106 −$18 -17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $3,351 −$6 -0%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 15 $46 +$1 +2%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 15 $53 +$6 +11%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-Jun Jun 01 $0 +$1 +109%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 01 $3 +$14 +469%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? May 29 $0 $0 +65%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M May 28 $153 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 25 $103 +$2 +2%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May May 24 $6 +$21 +351%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 24 $6 +$14 +242%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 24 $22 +$13 +60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 23 $63 +$1 +2%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $163 +$98 +60%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $22 +$35 +157%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 19 $704 +$54 +8%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 19 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Green Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand? May 14 $3 $0 -17%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? May 12 $251 +$20 +8%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27 May 12 $250 +$18 +7%
Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3 May 12 $2 +$2 +78%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? May 12 $226 +$22 +10%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-Ma May 12 $234 +$113 +48%
Will National Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand? May 12 $2 $0 +8%
Will Sean Strickland become UFC champion in 2026? May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $546 +$27 +5%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? May 10 $262 +$2,862 +1094%
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3 May 09 $530 +$903 +170%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 08 $1,467 +$10 +1%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10? May 08 $37 −$4 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 69¢ $30 8m
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? SELL No 100¢ $29 51m
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 69¢ $4 1h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 69¢ $1 1h
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $25 2h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? SELL No 100¢ $17 2h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? SELL No 100¢ $29 2h
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $24 3h
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 3h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? SELL No 100¢ $26 3h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 69¢ $34 3h
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 4? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 5h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 55¢ $36 8h
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 56¢ $11 8h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 55¢ $11 10h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 5¢ $11 10h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 55¢ $3 10h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 55¢ $59 10h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 52¢ $22 12h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 52¢ $5 12h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 52¢ $68 12h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 52¢ $1 12h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $544.56 · official $545.71 (match) · 2015 history records