Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9af…8ada other 253 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 241L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$25
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$37
sports 22% −$20
culture 8% −$9
crypto 8% −$6
politics 7% −$8
economics 7% −$6
world 4% −$5
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 253 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)253 / 253
History coverage133d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 253 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $199 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $220 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $1,028 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $396 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $233 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $367 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $313 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $278 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $241 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $195 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $188 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $420 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $235 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $234 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $204 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $846 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $64 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $132 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $588 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $423 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $265 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $179 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $226 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $223 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $142 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $448 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $303 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $374 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $181 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $59 12m
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 6h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 8h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $59 9h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $59 11h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $59 22h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $59 24h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 25h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 27h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 28h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 29h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 31h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 33h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 37h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 38h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 43h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 44h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $60 47h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $61 3d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1376 history records