Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:41:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F9 0xf9ac…806e other 668 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,921 (-4%) realized −$3,876 · open −$1,045
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate71%400W / 164L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day41.4pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$16,604now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$3,770
world 26% +$1,087
finance 12% +$1,952
crypto 8% +$610
tech 7% +$890
sports 7% −$178
politics 2% +$102
economics 0% −$205
weather 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -9.0% -17.7% 63% 37% -9.2%
≤30d 265 +1.9% -7.8% 75% 48% -7.9%
≤90d 564 +4.6% -5.3% 71% 44% -8.2%
all 564 +4.6% -5.3% 71% 44% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 44% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 23% -17.0%
15% -22.7% 14% -25.0%
20% -30.3% 8% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$66 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$16,604
Realized−$3,876
Unrealized−$1,045
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses400 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions108
Markets (closed)564 / 668
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$184
Trades / day41.4
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 108 History 564 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $870 $938 +$68 (+8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 90¢ 99¢ $500 $551 +$51 (+10%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 92¢ 98¢ $500 $534 +$34 (+7%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 88¢ 99¢ $440 $497 +$57 (+13%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $492 $491 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? No 93¢ 98¢ $465 $490 +$24 (+5%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $455 $479 +$24 (+5%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $436 $478 +$42 (+10%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of June? No 94¢ 89¢ $500 $473 −$27 (-5%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 98¢ 94¢ $490 $471 −$19 (-4%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? No 85¢ 90¢ $425 $452 +$28 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $430 $452 +$22 (+5%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 90¢ $397 $450 +$53 (+13%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 78¢ 89¢ $390 $444 +$54 (+14%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 58¢ 84¢ $290 $422 +$133 (+46%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 56¢ 68¢ $336 $408 +$72 (+21%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 98¢ $312 $392 +$80 (+26%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $266 $288 +$22 (+8%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? No 85¢ 95¢ $256 $285 +$29 (+11%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 88¢ 56¢ $440 $278 −$162 (-37%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? No 89¢ 42¢ $445 $212 −$232 (-52%)
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June? No 95¢ 95¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 92¢ 99¢ $184 $199 +$15 (+8%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? No 85¢ 96¢ $170 $192 +$22 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 17 $24 −$1 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $31 +$1 +4%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $86 +$10 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $26 +$11 +40%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $100 +$45 +45%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $80 +$20 +25%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1,090 +$18 +2%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $186 +$14 +8%
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$25 -62%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $71 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 16 $85 −$75 -88%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 16 $190 +$10 +5%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? Jun 16 $84 −$84 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 9? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 16 $306 −$124 -40%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 16 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $166 −$166 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$2 +6%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? Jun 16 $84 +$16 +19%
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $65 −$35 -54%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? Jun 16 $50 +$20 +40%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $201 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 16 $322 +$27 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $261 +$17 +6%
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? Jun 15 $150 +$12 +8%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $109 +$4 +4%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 15 $386 +$10 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $378 +$20 +5%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? Jun 15 $14 −$10 -71%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,155 +$20 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $86 −$86 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $189 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $199 +$17 +8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $72 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $80 June 8-14? Jun 15 $490 +$10 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 14? Jun 15 $103 +$43 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $672 +$162 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $201 53m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $39 1h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $23 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $200 1h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $90 1h
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $430 1h
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $2 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $501 1h
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $70 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $101 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $96 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $8 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $14 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $9 4h
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 5h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $51 13h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 14h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $7 15h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 24¢ $24 16h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 16h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of June? BUY No 94¢ $500 17h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $910 17h
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $67 19h
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 22h
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $12 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,604.47 · official $16,599.53 (match) · 3500 history records