Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:24:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9ac…2753 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-5%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate88%22W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$38
other 11% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -10.0% -18.6% 88% 4% -14.3%
≤30d 25 -10.0% -18.6% 88% 4% -14.3%
≤90d 25 -10.0% -18.6% 88% 4% -14.3%
all 25 -10.0% -18.6% 88% 4% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 4% -14.3%
10% -26.4% 4% -22.5%
15% -33.5% 0% -30.0%
20% -40.0% 0% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$24 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses22 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage3d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos NC Dinos 98¢ 98¢ $85 $85 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Noskova vs Parry Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) Jun 18 $80 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $69 +$16 +23%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $69 $0 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $69 $0 +0%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 17 $68 $0 +0%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $68 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $66 +$2 +3%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $65 +$1 +2%
Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals Jun 17 $65 $0 +0%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Game 3: Both Teams Destroy Barracks? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Ben Waine: 3+ goals Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bryson Stott: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Feras Al Brikan: 3+ goals Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 98¢ $85 1h
Set 1 Winner: Noskova vs Parry BUY Noskova 100¢ $40 2h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 100¢ $80 7h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 81¢ $69 10h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 100¢ $69 14h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 100¢ $69 15h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 100¢ $68 16h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 100¢ $43 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 99¢ $68 26h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $66 31h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 98¢ $65 35h
Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $65 39h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 98¢ $50 2d
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro SELL Oriol Roca Batalla 100¢ $51 2d
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 97¢ $50 2d
Game 3: Both Teams Destroy Barracks? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 94¢ $10 2d
Ben Waine: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Bryson Stott: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $10 2d
Feras Al Brikan: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $11 3d
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 100¢ $10 3d
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 100¢ $10 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin SELL Anhelina Kalinina 100¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Rooster 100¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 98¢ $1 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Anhelina Kalinina 99¢ $10 3d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.01 · official $85.01 (match) · 48 history records