Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:07:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9ab…95dd other 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$45 (-7%) realized −$55 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%25W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$43
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$20
sports 11% −$37
crypto 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -27.9% -34.8% 31% 31% -20.3%
≤30d 68 -25.7% -32.7% 37% 37% -19.8%
≤90d 68 -25.7% -32.7% 37% 37% -19.8%
all 68 -25.7% -32.7% 37% 37% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 37% -19.8%
10% -39.2% 35% -27.5%
15% -45.1% 34% -34.5%
20% -50.4% 24% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses25 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)68 / 79
History coverage12d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 21¢ $30 $44 +$14 (+47%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 53¢ 42¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-27%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $4 +$12 +291%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$14 -95%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$7 +32%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $1 +$7 +712%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$14 +46%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $4 −$4 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$24 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 +$9 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 52¢ $39 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 19h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 19h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 19h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 24h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 24h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 24h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $5 24h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.55 · official $98.55 (match) · 121 history records