Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:16:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9a6…b9d6 weather 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$73 (+3%) realized +$72 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate60%138W / 92L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$27
14 days+$18
30 days+$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 36% −$31
sports 31% +$67
world 16% +$13
other 11% −$3
crypto 4% +$16
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -0.8% -10.3% 63% 25% -6.8%
≤30d 139 +2.5% -7.3% 63% 35% -4.7%
≤90d 230 -1.7% -11.0% 60% 33% -6.9%
all 230 -1.7% -11.0% 60% 33% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 33% -6.9%
10% -19.6% 26% -15.8%
15% -27.3% 20% -23.9%
20% -34.5% 17% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses138 / 92
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)230 / 236
History coverage54d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 33¢ 34¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 18 $14 +$16 +117%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$2 -49%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 −$13 -66%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$9 -85%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$13 +178%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $7 +$5 +70%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 +$7 +257%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +2%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $30 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 16 $14 −$2 -12%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $44 +$4 +8%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$11 -89%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -9%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$4 +37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$7 +66%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $7 +$2 +31%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$6 +98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$5 +51%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +300%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$2 +78%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $4 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -91%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 35m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 35m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 35m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 14h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-1 BUY 18¢ $7 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 15h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 16h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 18h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 7¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.77 · official $62.77 (match) · 677 history records