Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:46:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9a4…a11d crypto 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$750 (+8%) realized +$1,505 · open −$755
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%21W / 38L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day52.7pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$871
sports 36% +$54
other 12% +$831
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +18.7% +7.4% 36% 34% +17.6%
≤30d 59 +18.7% +7.4% 36% 34% +17.6%
≤90d 59 +18.7% +7.4% 36% 34% +17.6%
all 59 +18.7% +7.4% 36% 34% +17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.4% 34% +17.6%
10% ← realistic here -2.9% 31% +6.3%
15% -12.3% 31% -4.0%
20% -20.9% 31% -13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$352 vs −$129 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized+$1,505
Unrealized−$755
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses21 / 38
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions6
Markets (closed)59 / 65
History coverage5d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day52.7
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 37¢ 88¢ $111 $262 +$152 (+136%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $300 $1 −$299 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $210 $0 −$210 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $149 $0 −$149 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $158 −$151 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $263 +$754 +287%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $263 −$263 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $179 −$179 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $367 +$766 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $283 −$246 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $120 −$115 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $190 −$162 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $215 +$541 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$37 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$42 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $255 +$512 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $127 −$112 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $84 −$75 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $140 +$197 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$350 +332%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $166 +$361 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $74 +$217 +295%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $157 +$288 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$89 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$35 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$13 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $232 −$232 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $96 −$96 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 16 $89 −$89 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 16 $279 −$279 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $635 −$635 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $120 +$480 +400%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $249 +$51 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$29 -70%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $351 −$324 -92%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $132 +$921 +698%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $225 +$200 +89%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $245 −$236 -96%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $216 +$984 +456%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $53 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $53 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $53 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $53 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $53 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $53 14m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $111 14m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $53 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $53 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $52 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $52 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $52 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $52 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $52 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $53 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $53 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.88 · official $264.88 (match) · 301 history records