Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:14:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf9a1…fe90 crypto 1334 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$226 (-2%) realized −$226 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate57%762W / 572L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$60
14 days−$117
30 days−$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$328
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 -11.9% -20.3% 48% 36% -14.7%
≤30d 869 -9.2% -17.8% 50% 30% -15.0%
≤90d 1334 -7.4% -16.2% 57% 34% -12.3%
all 1334 -7.4% -16.2% 57% 34% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 34% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 16% -20.7%
15% -31.5% 8% -28.4%
20% -38.3% 5% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$226
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses762 / 572
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1334 / 1334
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1334 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$9 +102%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$7 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$5 -41%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$4 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$6 +69%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin above 66,400 on June 16, 3AM ET? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -44%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$6 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$6 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin above 66,200 on June 15, 8PM ET? Jun 16 $4 +$3 +85%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records