Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F9 0xf99e…6831 crypto 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$708 (+56%) realized +$700 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$39
14 days−$55
30 days+$682
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$43
crypto 27% −$25
politics 27% +$614
world 8% +$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -42.5% -47.9% 0% 0% -43.9%
≤30d 23 +6.8% -3.4% 22% 22% +47.7%
≤90d 38 +1.6% -8.1% 37% 34% +41.5%
all 38 +1.6% -8.1% 37% 34% +41.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 34% +41.5%
10% -16.9% 24% +27.9%
15% -24.9% 24% +15.6%
20% -32.3% 16% +4.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$5 · ×11.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.96 per $1 lost it wins $6.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$700
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage61d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $51 −$6 -12%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $41 −$28 -68%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$8 -16%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 −$2 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 14 $50 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $30 +$66 +220%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $10 $0 -3%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $50 −$2 -4%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $50 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $101 +$14 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$143 +285%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 31 $306 +$548 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 25 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 25 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 25 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 25 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 25 $11 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 25 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 25 $30 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 24 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 24 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 24 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 24 $5 −$3 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 23¢ $45 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 25¢ $51 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $13 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 7d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 8d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $43 10d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 54¢ $50 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 10d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $49 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $43 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? BUY Yes $11 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 15d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 18d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $50 18d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 78¢ $49 18d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $48 18d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $48 18d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $49 18d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 20d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 20d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 20d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 20d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 20d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.70 · official $68.70 (match) · 109 history records