Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:03:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F9
0xf99e…2dbe
sports · 15 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
−$507 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$509 · open +$173
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$250
Realized−$509
Unrealized+$173
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage60d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 1 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals Yes 26¢ $77 $250 +$173 (+225%)
Spread: Konyaspor (-2.5) Konyaspor $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? No 93¢ $497 $0 −$497 (-100%)
Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5) Botafogo FR $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 14 $69 +$1 +1%
Spread: Gambia (-1.5) May 30 $452 +$28 +6%
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? May 29 $455 $0 +0%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? May 28 $497 −$497 -100%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 28 $499 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 25 cents (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Group May 28 $461 +$34 +7%
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31? May 27 $460 +$5 +1%
Spread: Nice (-2.5) May 27 $442 +$18 +4%
Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31? May 26 $448 −$6 -1%
Spread: Konyaspor (-2.5) Apr 27 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr Apr 27 $6 −$3 -43%
Spread: CA Juventud (-1.5) Apr 17 $410 +$4 +1%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 16 $402 $0 +0%
Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5) Apr 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 39% −$7
world 38% $0
other 22% −$326
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals BUY Yes $39 9m
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals BUY Yes $38 9m
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? SELL Yes $35 1h
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? SELL Yes $35 1h
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes $35 2h
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes $35 2h
Spread: Gambia (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 94¢ $452 16d
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $455 16d
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $455 16d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY No 93¢ $497 17d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $497 17d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $499 17d
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 25 cents (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Group BUY BESTIA 93¢ $461 17d
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $465 18d
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $460 18d
Spread: Nice (-2.5) BUY Saint-Etienne 96¢ $442 18d
Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $442 18d
Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $448 18d
Spread: Konyaspor (-2.5) BUY Konyaspor $15 47d
Spread: Konyaspor (-2.5) BUY Konyaspor $4 47d
Spread: Konyaspor (-2.5) BUY Konyaspor $15 47d
Spread: Konyaspor (-2.5) BUY Konyaspor $4 47d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr SELL Yes $2 47d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr SELL Yes $2 47d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr BUY Yes $3 47d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr BUY Yes $2 47d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr BUY Yes $1 47d
Spread: CA Juventud (-1.5) BUY CA Mineiro 99¢ $312 58d
Spread: CA Juventud (-1.5) BUY CA Mineiro 99¢ $99 58d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 SELL No 92¢ $402 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 9 -9.1% -17.7% 56% 0% -19.6%
≤90d 14 -23.1% -30.4% 50% 0% -19.3%
all 14 -23.1% -30.4% 50% 0% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 0% -19.3%
10% -37.1% 0% -27.1%
15% -43.2% 0% -34.1%
20% -48.7% 0% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.34 · official $250.34 (match) · 39 history records