Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf99d…6041 politics 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$4
politics 31% −$4
sports 14% −$15
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 106 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 141 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 4% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 3% -18.4%
15% -26.7% 2% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×6.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 129
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage125d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $120 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $63 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $48 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 27 $203 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $43 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $56 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $106 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $196 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $112 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $139 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $154 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $63 $0 +0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $45 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $109 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $115 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $114 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $165 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $127 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $129 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 10h
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $10 13h
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $10 25h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 25h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 9d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $7 12d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $7 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 13d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 13d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 14d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 14d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 15d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 15d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 15d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 15d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 17d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 17d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 18d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $51 18d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $51 18d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 19d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 19d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 19d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 20d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $55 20d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $55 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 407 history records