Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf99d…2777 world 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-2%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%16W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$21
other 27% +$1
politics 24% $0
crypto 9% $0
sports 5% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 14 -3.0% -12.3% 36% 7% -13.7%
≤90d 15 -3.1% -12.3% 33% 7% -13.7%
all 47 -1.6% -11.0% 34% 2% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 2% -11.0%
10% -19.5% 0% -19.5%
15% -27.3% 0% -27.3%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses16 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage283d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $78 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $54 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $27 +$4 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $27 −$2 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $17 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $45 −$20 -45%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $46 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $2 $0 -4%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Dec 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Oct 02 $32 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 19 $2 $0 -21%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $3 $0 -2%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $3 $0 -8%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Sep 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 08 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $32 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $32 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $28 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $28 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $2 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $10 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $8 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $3 23h
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $29 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $29 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $32 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $31 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $31 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $27 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 85¢ $25 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 90¢ $27 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $17 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $17 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $25 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $45 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 51¢ $11 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 51¢ $34 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $21 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records