Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:27:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf99d…2a74 other 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%16W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$21
14 days−$30
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$29
other 23% −$27
sports 19% −$21
crypto 8% −$3
economics 6% −$3
culture 5% −$5
tech 3% −$7
world 3% −$4
finance 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -1.0% -10.4% 4% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 72 -0.7% -10.2% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 151 -0.6% -10.1% 7% 0% -9.9%
all 168 -0.6% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses16 / 152
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)168 / 169
History coverage101d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $67 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $227 −$4 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $86 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 18 $181 −$1 -1%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $62 −$2 -3%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $45 $0 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $273 −$2 -1%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $47 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $110 −$2 -2%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $60 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $205 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $55 $0 +1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $86 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $114 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $42 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 11 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $86 $0 -0%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $216 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $87 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 06 $67 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $101 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $674 −$7 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $704 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $157 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $62 −$1 -2%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $60 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $90 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $226 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $67 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $70 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $70 9h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 91¢ $61 10h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 91¢ $61 17h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $78 17h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $78 22h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $73 23h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $74 29h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $60 30h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $62 36h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $44 36h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $45 40h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $42 41h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $44 46h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $46 46h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $47 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 2d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $50 2d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $59 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $56 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $57 3d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $38 3d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $38 3d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 3d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 3d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.28 · official $66.28 (match) · 720 history records