Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf99b…48e1 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$20 (+10%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$2
sports 12% +$14
crypto 11% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -6.2% -15.1% 42% 33% -1.8%
≤30d 12 -6.2% -15.1% 42% 33% -1.8%
≤90d 12 -6.2% -15.1% 42% 33% -1.8%
all 12 -6.2% -15.1% 42% 33% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 33% -1.8%
10% -23.2% 33% -11.2%
15% -30.6% 25% -19.8%
20% -37.4% 17% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 28 $26 −$1 -3%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $29 +$7 +25%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 $0 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$7 +47%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $12 +$15 +123%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 −$3 -21%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$6 +54%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 1h
Argentina to win the second half? SELL Yes 71¢ $25 1h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 72¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL 92¢ $36 2h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 13h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY 72¢ $29 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $29 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $23 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 22h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 23h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $12 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 36h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 63¢ $10 36h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $10 40h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.98 · official $25.98 (match) · 27 history records