Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:23:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F9
0xf99a…df76
other · 277 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$853 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$759 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$187
Realized+$759
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses174 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions3
Markets (closed)273 / 277
History coverage168d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%
Chart Positions 3 History 273 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$280
7 days+$831
14 days+$1,098
30 days+$1,370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Under 76¢ 74¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Under 70¢ 69¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 54¢ 54¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$11 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $201 +$37 +18%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 −$11 -53%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $500 +$4 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +54%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $40 +$14 +34%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $104 −$57 -55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $151 +$60 +40%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 +$28 +55%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$35 +782%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $203 +$97 +48%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $100 +$16 +16%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $61 −$37 -61%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $104 +$46 +45%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $237 +$103 +43%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $30 +$10 +31%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $100 −$4 -4%
England leading at halftime? Jun 10 $40 +$22 +54%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $100 +$14 +14%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $153 +$42 +27%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $52 +$15 +28%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $30 −$1 -2%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $40 +$20 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $100 +$17 +17%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $100 +$17 +17%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $40 +$23 +57%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $27 −$15 -55%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $68 +$28 +41%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $60 +$10 +16%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $9 +$15 +165%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $214 +$35 +17%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $135 +$15 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $182 +$18 +10%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $281 +$51 +18%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 08 $40 +$11 +28%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $233 +$28 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $156 −$1 -1%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $40 −$17 -42%
Spread: Kosovo (-1.5) Jun 07 $30 +$20 +64%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $50 +$17 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% +$429
sports 41% +$458
politics 4% −$92
crypto 2% +$18
world 2% −$27
tech 1% −$29
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $238 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 84¢ $201 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 27¢ $10 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $50 2h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $20 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $101 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $41 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $505 13h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $500 13h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 16h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $122 16h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 82¢ $101 17h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 18h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $40 19h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $47 19h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $211 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $104 20h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $51 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $151 27h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 41h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $300 41h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $5 41h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $203 43h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $30 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +29.3% +17.0% 78% 69% +6.2%
≤30d 156 +7.0% -3.2% 70% 54% -0.7%
≤90d 268 -0.9% -10.3% 63% 43% -7.0%
all 273 -0.1% -9.6% 64% 43% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 43% -6.9%
10% -18.3% 27% -15.8%
15% -26.2% 21% -24.0%
20% -33.4% 14% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.29 · official $187.30 (match) · 869 history records