Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf999…f2e6 sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$61 (-9%) realized −$57 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$83
other 31% −$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-56.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -52.3% -56.9% 11% 11% -22.6%
≤30d 9 -52.3% -56.9% 11% 11% -22.6%
≤90d 9 -52.3% -56.9% 11% 11% -22.6%
all 9 -52.3% -56.9% 11% 11% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.9% 11% -22.6%
10% -61.0% 11% -30.0%
15% -64.8% 11% -36.8%
20% -68.2% 11% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$238 vs −$38 · ×6.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$238 +232%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$1 -3%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 18h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 18h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 18h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 18h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 18h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 18h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $46 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $49 18h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.73 · official $195.73 (match) · 17 history records