Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:14:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf999…30dd crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate68%25W / 12L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day33.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -3.0% -12.2% 68% 57% -3.6%
≤30d 37 -3.0% -12.2% 68% 57% -3.6%
≤90d 37 -3.0% -12.2% 68% 57% -3.6%
all 37 -3.0% -12.2% 68% 57% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 57% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 46% -12.8%
15% -28.3% 22% -21.3%
20% -35.3% 5% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses25 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage3d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $36 −$17 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $22 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$14 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $45 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$15 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $14 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $12 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $11 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $15 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $7 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $31 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records