Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:07:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf998…13f5 sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$177 (+0%) realized +$627 · open −$450
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%31W / 24L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$561per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$7,034now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,596
7 days−$32
14 days−$327
30 days−$327
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$224
sports 49% +$796
world 1% −$556
crypto 0% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -5.9% -14.9% 52% 52% -9.7%
≤30d 50 -7.6% -16.4% 52% 50% -10.9%
≤90d 51 -7.5% -16.3% 53% 49% -10.6%
all 55 -4.9% -13.9% 56% 47% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 47% -8.5%
10% -22.2% 47% -17.3%
15% -29.7% 47% -25.3%
20% -36.6% 44% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$239 vs −$294 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$7,034
Realized+$627
Unrealized−$450
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses31 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions18
Markets (closed)55 / 73
History coverage140d
Avg bet$561
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1,304 $1,272 −$32 (-2%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 56¢ $1,318 $1,166 −$152 (-12%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $819 $815 −$4 (-0%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 68¢ $487 $480 −$7 (-2%)
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 48¢ $504 $375 −$129 (-26%)
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 64¢ $331 $369 +$38 (+11%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $340 $343 +$3 (+1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Under 67¢ 66¢ $340 $337 −$3 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $330 $327 −$3 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 5.5 Corners Over 46¢ 49¢ $240 $256 +$16 (+7%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Curaçao 57¢ 56¢ $240 $238 −$2 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 3.5 Corners Over 53¢ 54¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Under 38¢ 38¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Alexander Isak: 3+ shots Yes 45¢ 51¢ $150 $169 +$19 (+13%)
Will Bukayo Saka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 36¢ 28¢ $180 $140 −$40 (-22%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 44¢ 24¢ $200 $107 −$93 (-47%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 21¢ 8¢ $100 $40 −$60 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $365 +$256 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $304 +$262 +86%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $407 +$252 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $506 +$365 +72%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $305 +$334 +109%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $314 −$310 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $304 +$188 +62%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 19 $253 +$201 +79%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $202 +$167 +83%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $304 −$300 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $105 +$94 +90%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $257 +$153 +60%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $406 +$349 +86%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $518 −$510 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner Jun 18 $154 +$96 +62%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 18 $155 −$152 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $387 −$382 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $228 −$224 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $206 −$202 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $207 −$202 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $558 −$551 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $334 +$276 +83%
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 18 $150 −$149 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $218 +$292 +134%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $249 +$261 +105%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $320 −$320 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $289 −$286 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $229 −$226 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $307 −$302 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $349 +$161 +46%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $310 +$200 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $690 +$330 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $284 +$226 +79%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $156 −$153 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $346 −$342 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $410 +$610 +149%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $563 −$556 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $439 −$435 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $269 −$265 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $259 −$255 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $533 +$487 +91%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $320 +$190 +60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $106 −$104 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $650 +$370 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $249 +$261 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $294 +$216 +73%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $309 −$305 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $420 −$418 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $5,573 +$123 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $343 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 1h
Alexander Isak: 3+ shots BUY Yes 45¢ $152 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $244 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $203 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $334 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $243 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under 38¢ $204 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $343 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $203 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $203 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $304 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $365 16h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $407 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $314 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $102 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $203 19h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $202 25h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $253 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $304 25h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $304 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $304 27h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $406 44h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $518 46h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $105 2d
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 37¢ $155 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $387 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $257 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $228 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,034.31 · official $7,176.27 · 183 history records