Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:41:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F9 0xf991…3c47 crypto 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$50 (+0%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate84%102W / 20L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$11
14 days+$17
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$33
other 4% +$2
tech 3% +$4
world 3% +$8
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -1.9% -11.2% 78% 3% -9.4%
≤30d 113 -1.9% -11.2% 84% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 122 -1.5% -10.9% 84% 3% -9.3%
all 122 -1.5% -10.9% 84% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 3% -9.3%
10% -19.4% 1% -18.0%
15% -27.2% 1% -25.9%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses102 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)122 / 126
History coverage39d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 97¢ 97¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $194 +$1 +0%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? Jun 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $453 +$2 +0%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $194 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $494 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 18 $19 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $95 −$4 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $503 +$4 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $309 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $474 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $13 +$2 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $32 $0 +1%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 15 $24 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $460 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $267 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $459 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 14? Jun 14 $324 +$1 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Completed match? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $442 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$5 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $323 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $322 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $321 +$1 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $257 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $137 −$11 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $131 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 11 $39 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $96 +$3 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $278 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $373 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $170 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 19? SELL No 98¢ $2 37m
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 19? SELL No 97¢ $5 37m
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 19? SELL No 98¢ $156 38m
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? SELL No 89¢ $9 39m
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 19? SELL No 98¢ $8 46m
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 19? SELL No 97¢ $24 47m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $146 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $19 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $4 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $456 20h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL No 76¢ $10 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $49 22h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $11 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $10 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $353 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $53 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 98¢ $13 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 98¢ $20 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 98¢ $163 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $194 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $495 33h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $10 36h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $494 37h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.08 · official $227.08 (match) · 376 history records