Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:25:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf98e…becb crypto 447 markets active 2h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate48%214W / 233L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$7
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -19.6% -27.3% 57% 33% -12.3%
≤30d 119 -52.3% -56.8% 19% 12% -12.6%
≤90d 366 -32.4% -38.9% 42% 14% -11.2%
all 447 -27.5% -34.4% 48% 13% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 13% -10.4%
10% -40.7% 7% -19.0%
15% -46.4% 4% -26.8%
20% -51.7% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses214 / 233
Open positions0
Markets (closed)447 / 447
History coverage179d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 447 Trades
no open positions (161 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET Jun 19 $56 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 19 $59 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $34 −$30 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$5 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $37 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $45 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $54 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 10 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2AM ET Jun 10 $39 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1PM ET Jun 09 $19 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $19 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $0 +$5 +4900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $19 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1349 history records