Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:44:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf98b…57bb sports 659 markets active 0h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,805 (-2%) realized −$1,789 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate61%397W / 257L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$791est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$221
7 days+$408
14 days+$976
30 days+$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$673
crypto 3% −$1,625
other 2% −$111
world 1% +$24
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -0.3% -9.8% 62% 54% -1.6%
≤30d 315 +6.3% -3.8% 65% 52% -7.9%
≤90d 571 +2.3% -7.4% 61% 51% -9.9%
all 654 +2.9% -6.9% 61% 51% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 51% -10.5%
10% -15.8% 43% -19.1%
15% -23.9% 33% -26.9%
20% -31.4% 23% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$65 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized−$1,789
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses397 / 257
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$791
Open positions4
Markets (closed)654 / 659
History coverage233d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 654 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 76¢ 74¢ $152 $149 −$3 (-2%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-21%)
Another pandemic before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $245 +$93 +38%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $182 −$86 -47%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $195 +$55 +28%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 18 $64 +$41 +64%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $76 +$24 +32%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $285 +$54 +19%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $257 +$13 +5%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $16 +$1 +5%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $212 +$32 +15%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $44 −$10 -22%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $125 +$25 +20%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $203 +$47 +23%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$24 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$37 -37%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $38 −$20 -53%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $94 −$8 -8%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $349 −$144 -41%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $239 +$53 +22%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $66 +$34 +51%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $81 +$30 +36%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $67 +$14 +21%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $71 +$21 +29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $81 +$56 +69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $319 +$19 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $310 −$176 -57%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$14 +70%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$6 -28%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $170 +$50 +29%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $32 −$16 -49%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $241 −$177 -74%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $281 +$75 +27%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $173 +$87 +50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$41 -40%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $117 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $190 −$105 -55%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $23 −$2 -8%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $41 −$11 -27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$8 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $95 +$62 +66%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $23 +$7 +31%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 +$23 +46%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 42¢ $39 8m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 38¢ $12 10m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 38¢ $3 10m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 36¢ $19 10m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 23¢ $11 11m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 31¢ $16 15m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 41¢ $97 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 41¢ $32 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 36¢ $36 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 36¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 36¢ $37 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 36¢ $36 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Resilience 96¢ $208 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 61¢ $19 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 61¢ $42 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 58¢ $44 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 58¢ $24 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 20¢ $17 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 43¢ $21 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $22 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 81¢ $40 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 62¢ $62 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 29¢ $7 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 29¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 29¢ $15 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 74¢ $10 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 74¢ $13 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 70¢ $35 3h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 78¢ $195 12h
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) BUY PlayTime 61¢ $61 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.82 · official $220.83 (match) · 2893 history records