Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf98b…647c crypto 988 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$162 (+1%) realized +$162 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate81%804W / 184L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$35
14 days+$15
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 +2.1% -7.6% 89% 30% -7.7%
≤30d 460 -0.9% -10.3% 83% 29% -10.7%
≤90d 988 +0.9% -8.7% 81% 29% -9.0%
all 988 +0.9% -8.7% 81% 29% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 29% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 3% -17.7%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$162
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses804 / 184
Open positions0
Markets (closed)988 / 988
History coverage69d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 988 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$7 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2864 history records