Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf987…e4dd crypto 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$113 (+11%) realized +$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%38W / 76L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$112
14 days−$117
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$117
sports 49% +$189
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -24.3% -31.5% 34% 28% -29.0%
≤30d 101 -23.3% -30.6% 35% 29% -3.3%
≤90d 104 -18.3% -26.1% 35% 29% +10.0%
all 114 -21.5% -29.0% 33% 28% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 28% -2.6%
10% -35.8% 16% -11.9%
15% -42.0% 12% -20.5%
20% -47.7% 11% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$6 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses38 / 76
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 114
History coverage127d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$10 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 301 history records