Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf979…c92f crypto 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$112 (+1%) realized +$109 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate82%106W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$4
14 days−$85
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$83
sports 7% +$92
tech 2% +$7
other 1% −$81
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.5% -7.3% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 21 -2.0% -11.4% 95% 5% -14.2%
≤90d 83 +5.4% -4.6% 93% 10% -8.8%
all 129 +1.8% -7.9% 82% 22% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 22% -8.9%
10% -16.7% 15% -17.6%
15% -24.7% 14% -25.6%
20% -32.1% 12% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$23 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$109
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses106 / 23
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)129 / 135
History coverage177d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 65¢ 72¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027? No 80¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? No 84¢ 93¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $36 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $36 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? Jun 23 $35 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 09 $11 +$3 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $49 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $147 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? May 26 $136 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 24? May 24 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? May 24 $237 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $398 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 22 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? May 22 $236 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? May 21 $393 +$7 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? May 20 $195 +$5 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 20 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19? May 19 $291 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 18? May 18 $199 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? May 18 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? May 18 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? May 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 16 $719 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 15 $416 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14? May 14 $398 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 13 $795 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? May 12 $417 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $415 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $413 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9? May 09 $797 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 09 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 08 $408 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 07 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 06 $189 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $38 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 97¢ $36 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 77¢ $2 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 77¢ $6 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $36 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $35 4d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1. BUY 12¢ $1 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 34¢ $1 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $37 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $37 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 87¢ $44 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $46 12d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $98 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $92 18d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $14 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.70 · official $72.70 (match) · 395 history records