Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:59:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf976…b3cf other 478 markets active 1h ago coverage 729d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate33%154W / 318L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$23
other 14% +$2
politics 0% −$2
sports 0% −$1
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 27% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 46 -0.2% -9.7% 35% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 138 -0.9% -10.3% 32% 1% -9.7%
all 472 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 1% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

729d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses154 / 318
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)472 / 478
History coverage729d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 472 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? Jun 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 16 $88 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? Jun 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 13 $89 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 12 $510 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Jun 11 $507 −$3 -1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 09 $514 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 07 $515 −$3 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 06 $505 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 04 $509 −$3 -1%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 03 $1 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 03 $1 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 03 $1 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 02 $504 +$6 +1%
Will Chainlink reach $14 in May? May 30 $518 −$3 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 29 $519 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? May 29 $20 $0 +1%
Will BNB reach $800 in May? May 28 $518 −$4 -1%
Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? May 26 $114 +$1 +0%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? May 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? May 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? May 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? May 23 $90 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? May 22 $89 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? May 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 21 $90 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? May 19 $84 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 16 $85 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 15 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 99¢ $90 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 23h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 23h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1 23h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1 23h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1 23h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 23h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 23h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 23h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 23h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 23h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $88 41h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? SELL No 99¢ $10 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? SELL No 99¢ $10 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $88 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $90 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 99¢ $20 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $89 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $89 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $512 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $510 7d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? SELL No 99¢ $504 7d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 7d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 7d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.13 · official $95.13 (match) · 1016 history records